Economic Fluctuations and Mortality—the Regional Picture
The issues arising from the data analysis suggest many different research possibilities at various levels. As regards the short-term interaction between mortality and economic fluctuations, we can state that the correlation between price variation and mortality is always significant, even in such a short time span (1823—54) that is characterized by little variability in prices,10 low levels of mortality, and the absence of virulent, widespread epidemics (Breschi 1990).
In fact, the relation between price fluctuation and deaths (total adjusted deaths) was both immediate and delayed. The same year that witnesses a price increase (lag 0) shows a positive correlation with mortality; the year after (lag 1) a negative correlation, the following year (lag 2) we again notice a positive correlation. A similar pattern has been found in Tuscany over longer periods. By contrast, the demographic response was not so immediate in some areas of northern Italy (Table 13.2). These initial empirical analyses show a variability of reactions within central-northern Italy similar to that already observed in the European countries (Galloway 1988).The picture is even clearer when the Tuscan population is considered according to age groups (Table 13.3). The probability of dying during the first year of life (q0) is completely independent of short-term price fluctuations, while for other age groups the mortality response (q„) to a price oscillation is significant and distributed over some years. The differences in reaction may be caused by food intake habits. During the time period in question, weaning took place around the end of the first year; throughout the nineteenth century this was the age indicated even for foundlings as the time limit for wet nursing (Corsini 1991). Breastfeeding not only allowed infants independence from the market situation, but it also protected them from epidemics, which were, however, not particularly widespread during the period under investigation (Del Panta 1980).
As the protection received through breastfeeding came to an end, babies paid a heavy toll, however delayed. The possible explanation for the delay (more on this later) can be inferred—especially in the Senese countryside—from the working calendar of the parents.The price increase—taken as a wide indicator of worsening living conditions—immediately affected (lag 0) adults from the ages 20 to 60, and in a lesser way, the elderly (ages 60 and beyond). If, on the one hand, the latter could be considered weaker due to their physical decline, on the other hand, it must be noted that this group experienced high mortality levels even during ‘normal’ years. Moreover, the importance of the role of the elderly within the family should not be underestimated, especially in the more traditional rural areas (Barbagli 1984). In the year immediately after the increase (lag 1), as indicated by the coefficient sign, we notice a decrease of deaths. We can say that after the initial effect on mortality, there is no
Table 13.2 Estimated elasticity of wheat price fluctuations on total adjusted deaths’, Italy
| Country | Period | Adj. R2 | Constant | Lag 0 | Lag 1 | Lag2 | Lag 3 | Lag4 | Sum Lag | D-epid. |
| Tuscany | 1823-54 | 0.32 | 0.503” | 0.191- | -0.108 | 0.430*** | — | — | 0.513*** | — |
| 1823-1 934 | 0.13 | 0.481- | 0.278” | 0.118 | 0.121 | — | — | 0.517*** | — | |
| 1823-1 934 | 0.73 | 0.651” | 0.145“ | 0.042 | 0.146*** | — | — | 0.333*** | 0.719*** | |
| Friuli | 1800-76 | 0.40 | 0.653” | -0.053 | 0.185“ | 0.295*** | -0.069 | -0.023 | 0.335*** | 0.269** |
| Bologna | ||||||||||
| Urban | 1699-1 779 | 0.36 | 0.496” | 0.112 | 0.459” | -0.232** | 0.112 | 0.038 | 0.509 | 0.157*** |
| Rural | 1699-1 779 | 0.38 | 0.999” | 0.073 | 0.188“ | -0.175** | 0.063 | -0.171** | -0.022 | 0.294*** |
| Ravenna | ||||||||||
| Urban | 1711-85 | 0.28 | 1.047- | 0.023 | 0.249* | -0.121 | 0.067 | -0.302** | -0.084 | 0.450*** |
| Rural | 1711-85 | 0.52 | 1.312∙∙∙ | -0.167 | 0.071 | 0.034 | -0.113 | -0.185 | -0.360 | 0.707*** |
’ Total adjusted deaths to eliminate the demographic effect of fluctuations in births.
Note: Level of significance:
*** 1%,
** 5%,
* 10%.
Sources: Bologne and Ravenna: Scalone 2002; Friuli and Tuscany 1823—1934: Breschi and Gonano 2000.
Table 13.3 Estimated elasticity of wheat price fluctuations on different mortality indicators by age, Tuscany 1823—54
| Adj. R2 | Constant | Lag 0 | Lag 1 | Lag2 | Total lag | |
| Total adj. deaths’ | 0.32 | 0.503” | 0.191- | -0.108 | 0.430” | 0.513” |
| q | -0.04 | 1.052” | -0.088 | 0.035 | — | -0.053 |
| q | 0.11 | 0.612” | 0.064 | -0.187 | 0.517” | 0.394” |
| d | 0.24 | 0.265 | 0.205 | 0.048 | 0.500” | 0.753” |
| d20-60 | 0.34 | 0.366" | 0.280“ | 0.018 | 0.355" | 0.654” |
| d 60+ | 0.26 | 0.479” | 0.307” | -0.056 | 0.286’ | 0.537” |
Total adjusted deaths to eliminate the demographic effect of fluctuations in births.
Note: Level of significance:
1%,
5%,
10%.
second round. The following year (lag 2) the mortality rate rises again.
The effects seem to be diluted in time, but the efforts to fight off the crisis continue to undermine even those who, for many reasons, might be expected to have been better equipped to face a recession.Breschi and Gonano (2000) have found broadly similar results, again at the regional level, during the entire nineteenth century and at the beginning of the twentieth century (Table 13.2). The living conditions of large parts of the Tuscan population remained anchored to a rural form of economy and society. Demographic indicators show the beginning of a full demographic transition around the end of the 1880s. The persistence of a tight link between economic fluctuation and demographic mortality fluctuation should not therefore come as a surprise. A variety of empirical tests have been made to measure the reaction of the population of Tuscany to economic fluctuations (Breschi, Derosas, and Manfredini 1999; Livi Bacci 1998; Livi Bacci and Breschi 1990). The rich and detailed documentary material available from about the beginning of the nineteenth century allows us to investigate the ‘geography’ of the short-term link between economy and demography: a crucial investigative perspective for one of the most complex and rich regions on the Italian peninsula.
5.