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A forecast is any statement about the future. Such statements may be well founded, or lack any sound basis; they may be accurate or inaccurate on any given occasion, or on average; precise or imprecise; and model- based or infor­mal...

Since [a forecast] is merely a statement about the future, anything can be forecast. (Clements and Hendry 2002b: 2).

This quote from the introduction to David and Mike Clements' 2002 book A Companion to Economic Forecasting emphasises just how widespread fore­casts are—whether as ex ante or ex post forecasts, or as “projections”, alterna­tive simulations, or policy scenarios. As such, forecasts play key roles in economic decision-making by consumers, by firms, and by governments. David's own involvement in economic forecasting evolved from making fore­casts (Section 4.1) through an understanding of the nature of forecasts (Section 4.2) to designing ways in which forecasts can be improved (Section 4.3).

4.1

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Source: Cord Robert A. (ed.). The Palgrave Companion to Oxford Economics. Palgrave Macmillan,2021. — 819 p. 2021

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